estimation on recreational value of tuchal mountainous region using hickman two stages econometric model

introductionmountainous region of tuchal, with a height about 3962 meters above sea level, is located in north of tehran,capital of iran. with regards to population growth, and increasing urbanization, and air pollution issues, it isknown as one of the most important recreational area for health recovery and relaxation among people living intehran. as these spaces are known as public goods with free access, most of the visitors are not informed fromits real utility and values. this usually decline efficient and optimum use of these spaces and causes theirdegradation.the economic values of natural recreational regions not only increase their conservation by users, but alsocreate more accurate information for decision makers to improve properly other natural regions. it can also beeffective in forecasting requirements, omitting deficiencies and developing tourism industry in the recreationalareas.materials and methodsin this study, recreational value of tuchal region is estimated with contingent valuation method from 227respondents. the method is used in open-ended way. two stages method of hickman has been chosen torecognize factors affecting on decision in willingness to pay in first stage and other factors affecting on deal ofwillingness to pay in the second stage. required data was gathered via questionnaires and personal interviewwith 227 visitors. after deletion of incomplete responses and protest zeros, 47% of respondents were willing topay entrance fee for recreational use of the region. table 1 show estimation results of tobit model forwillingness to pay for recreational use of tuchal region.table 1. estimation results of tobit model for willingness to pay for recreational use of tuchaltotalelasticityrealizedelasticityexpectiveelasticitystatistic tnormalizedcoefficientvariableage (year) -0.09 -1.87 -0.51 -0.4 -0.91education (year) 0.0021 0.51 0.083 0.06 0.1430.00008 5.21 1.1 1.76 86.2respondent income(irr1000)-0.62 -3.11 -0.474 -0.696 -1.17number of familymembers0.17 0.54 0.37 0.4 0.77home type (apartment=1villa=0)0.079 1.97 0.42 0.17 0.59air pollution in workplace(percentage)-0.000009 -0.28 -0.097 -0.131 -0.228geographical change ofwork place(hours)fixed coefficient -0.013 -0.55 - -r2= 0.71 hence, in this study, recreational value of tuchal is estimated with contingent valuation method. the elicitmethod used is open-ended. two stages method of hickman has been used to recognize factors affecting ondecisions for willingness to pay in first stage and other factors affecting on deal of willingness to pay in thesecond stage. table 2 shows the estimation results of probit model on willingness to pay for recreational use oftuchal.table 2. the first stage: estimation results of probit model for willingness to payfor recreational use of tuchalfinal effecttotal weightedelasticityelasticityin averagevariable coefficient statistic tsex 0.258 1.91 0.33 0.3 0.061age (year) -1.01 -0.75 -0.24 -0.21 -0.003education (year) 0.316 0.29 0.015 0.014 0.000116number of family members -0.77 -2.53 -0.75 -0.74 -0.17respondent income (irr1000) 0.00051 3.2 1.62 1.41 0.000210.63 2.03 0.19 0.16 0.24home type (apartment=1villa=0)-0.0901 -1.85 -0.41 -0.39 -0.0005geographical change of workplace(hours)-0.44 3.06 0.53 0.52 0.0029air pollution in workplace(percentage)fixed coefficient 2.73 1.62 0.12 0.1correct prediction percentage= 80.3%mcfadden r2 = 0.57log-liklihhod function=-81.003log-liklihhood (0)= 147.15after deletion of incomplete responses and protest zeros, 82% of respondents was willing to pay entrance feefor recreational use of the region. the average of wtp was calculated 0.6 us$ per visitor and recreational valueof tuchal area was estimated about 6000 us$ per hectare, in summer 2012.other results also showed thatincome and facilities of the region (meaningful in 1% level) are the most effective variable in dealing with wtp.table 3 shows the estimation results of linear regression model for the amount of entrance fee for recreationaluse of tuchal region.table 3. second stage: estimation results of linear regression model for the amount of entrance fee for recreationaluse of tuchalvariable coefficient statistic tage (year) -29.7 -0.15education (year) 33.1 1.14number of family members -1004.2 -2.76respondent income (irr1000) 0.886 4.01home type (apartment=1 villa=0) 768.3 0.83geographical change of work place(hours) -2.44 -0.145use of flowers and plants at home (percentage) 34.6 1.94air pollution in workplace (percentage) 127 2.09number of visits (yearly) -1190.2 -1.86inverse mill ratio 57.24 3.68fixed coefficient 9250.2 5.28r2= 0.57d-w=2.05results and discussionhousehold size, impressiveness of pollution in work or living places of visitors, kind of houses (apartment orvilla) are the next effective variables (meaningful in 5%) on deal for wtp, in order. although, education level isimportant factor and it is significant in 20% level. the age and geographic variety of work place affect justdecision to wtp in the first stage and not deal of it.with regards to high recreational value estimated per hectare in the region, it is required to pay moreattention to conservation of natural recreational regions. this is more important in big cities such as tehran  where habitants suffer from many kinds of pollution and deficiency of green spaces. the average wtp was 9444rls per visitor and recreational value of tuchal area was estimated about 137888240 rls per hectare, in summer2012.conclusionwith regards to high recreational value estimated per hectare in this region, it is required to pay more attention toconservation of other natural recreational sites with more responsibility. this is more important in big cities suchas tehran with high level of air pollutions and deficiency of green spaces per capita.